Fire Scenario
Scenario - Progression
We’ve prepared a fire scenario to illustrate the potential devastation of a major blaze in the Santa Monica Mountains. It is based on continued changes in urban wildland fire behavior, leading to fires in areas that have historically been unaffected.
It illustrates the expansive nature of a major wildfire encompassing both LA City and County from east to west, based on, climatic conditions, built-up fuel, and topography.
2. Scenario- Background
Past fire patterns show that there exist certain cases where the Santa Ana wind is not the primary factor for determining the direction of spread but simply a contributing factor. Instead, fuel accumulation from long periods of no fire and topography cause unpredictable behavior as seen with the 2017 Skirball Fire and the 1938 Topanga No. 50.
Conditions of low humidity and temperatures in the upper 80s are highly favorable to start a fire. Here we explore this Scenario during an early morning in September 2023.
2:30am - 4:00am | Early morning slow build, low intensity
Ignition point: Northern Stone Canyon Reservoir
Wind speed: 20mph tree top wind with 50mph NE Santa Ana’s expected due to high pressure.
4:00 - 5:30 AM | Accelerating spread, high intensity
Fire jumps over the 405 HWY
Grows considerably due to fuel types
Wind speed: 40mph NE Santa Ana’s still blowing
5:30 AM - 4:30 PM | Continued spread, high intensity
Fire expands west into Fire Corridor
Grows considerably due to fuel types
Wind speed: 40mph NE Santa Ana’s still blowing